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The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) on Sunday warned of “destructive” trend to peace by Israel after its top policy official expressed opposition to any withdrawals from the lands that his state occupied in 1967.

The Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the land for peace principle “has not yielded any results.” According to that proposal, Israel would give up control of most of the lands it occupied in the 1967 war for the Palestinians in exchange for security and peace.

Nabil Abu Rdineh, spokesman for the Palestinian presidency, said Lieberman’s statements “are totally an unacceptable policy.”

The spokesman added that there is a chance for making peace under the sponsorship of the new U.S. administration but Lieberman’s statements “destruct the current chance.”

“This requires a clear international reaction, especially by the United States, to these dangerous approaches,” Abu Rdineh continued.

The peace talks between Israel and the PNA have stopped after the Israeli government, led by rightist Benjamin Netanyahu, sworn in at the beginning of this month though the negotiations have actually stopped months earlier.

The PNA blames Israeli unilateral measures, especially the construction of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, for the failure of the peace process that aims at creating a Palestinian statehood alongside Israel.

China’s apparent steel use, predicted to see a five percent decline in 2009, will lead the recovery for the whole world with a total steel use decline of 14.9 percent, the World Steel Association said here on Monday.

The World Steel Association (Worldsteel), which represents 180 steel producers, national and regional steel industry, forecasted that worldwide apparent steel use is expected to decline by 14.9 percent to 1,018.6 million metric tons (mmt) in 2009 after declining by 1.4 percent to 1,197 mmt in 2008.

However, steel demand is expected to stabilize in the latter part of 2009 leading to a mild recovery in 2010.

China is expected to witness a negative growth of minus five percent in the apparent steel use in 2009 as the ongoing global economic crisis hits China’s exports, in addition to the effects of a slowing domestic economy, Worldsteel said.

The last time China’s apparent steel use recorded a negative growth was in 1995 when the apparent steel use fell by 17.2 percent following the real estate bubble burst.

“China’s stimulus policy which put more emphasis on infrastructure development will give a boost to its steel industry, while more mature economies are still trying to stabilize its bank industry,” said Ian Christmas, director general for the World Steel Association.

Emerging economies are being affected by the economic crisis, but to a lesser degree, Christmas said.

India, whose economy focuses more on software and textile, is projected to have a positive growth of two percent for the apparent steel use in 2009, while BRIC countries as a whole are forecasted to contract by only minus 5.9 percent, according to the Worldsteel prediction.

While the projected apparent steel use for the world, excluding BRIC, is down 22.3 percent in 2009, the world excluding China is expected to decline by 20.4 percent in 2009.

Within the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) region, the U.S. is expected to show the largest decline in steel demand in the post-war period. In 2009, the apparent steel use is expected to fall by 36.6 percent.

Europe will be the most affected region outside NAFTA. The EU will have a 27 percent decline. Other part of Europe and CIS regions are expected to show a decline of more than 25 percent in their apparent steel use in 2009.

Japan has also been affected by a sharp decline in the exports of its steel-using industries, especially automotive and machinery. The apparent steel use is expected to fall by 20.4 percent in 2009.

“The progression of the U.S. financial crisis into a global economic crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronized global decline of steel demand in late 2008. For most of the world this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2009,” said Daniel Novegil, chairman of the World Steel Economics Committee.

Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of 2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the continued stabilization of financial systems and a return of some consumer confidence,” Novegil said.

The Board will review a Short Range Outlook for 2010 at its Board Meeting in October 2009 in Beijing.

Hong Kong stocks shed 301.92 points, or 1.74 percent to close at 17,087.95 at the end of Monday trading, as investors rushed to take profit gained during the seven-day rally starting on April 30.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower at 17,381 and advanced to the day high of 17,685.64 before moving downward to the day low of 17,032.44. The market retrieved some ground upon closing.

Market turnover expanded to 92.13 billion HK dollars (11.90 billion U.S. dollars), from Friday’s 86.77 billion HK dollars (11.21 billion U.S. dollars).

Analysts say the market could face further consolidation as economic fundamentals are not good enough to support the current market level.

Aside from profit-taking, the Hong Kong market was thought to be dragged down by China’s mainland bourses, which moved into negative territory after days of considerable gains.

The Chinese government said the country’s main inflation index fell 1.5 percent year-on-year in April, a result much better than anticipated.

However, the good news seemed unable to lend any momentum to the retreating stock market, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.8 percent and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.09 percent.

Heavyweight HSBC gained 0.3 percent to 66.1 HK dollars, among other constituents that defied the down trend.

China Mobile dropped 1.2 percent to 75.3 HK dollars and another telecom service provider China Unicom rose 0.11 percent to 9.25 HK dollars.

Shoe maker Yue Yuen plunged 7.2 percent to 16.07 HK dollars after news that the company would be kicked out of the Hang Seng Index and replaced by electricity producer China Resources Power Holdings on June 8.

Financial stocks fell cross the board. China’s biggest lender ICBC slid 1.9 percent to 4.71 HK dollars, Bank of China lost 2.37 percent to 2.88 HK dollars and Bank of Construction fell 6.7 percent on concerns Bank of America will sell shares in the company.

The property sector was also down. Henderson Land 5.2 percent to 37.6 HK dollars, Cheung Kong down 1.8 percent and New World Development down 2.1.

Utilities stocks failed to buckle the market fall, with HK Electric down 0.71 percent and MTR Corporation down 5.37 percent. (7.7420 HK dollars = 1 US dollar)

Indonesia’s PT Bank Pembangunan Jawa Barat and Banten (Bank Jabar Banten), the country’s biggest provincial banks, announced on Tuesday that it will offer bonds worth 1.5 trillion rupiah (about 14.6 million U.S. dollars).

The bond would carry fixed interest rates with three and five-year maturity. The issuance was aimed to support the bank’s credit growth, particularly in micro and small-medium enterprise segment.

“Part of the proceed would be used as our credit expansion financing,” said the bank’s President Director Agus Ruswendi, following the due diligence and public expose of the bonds offer.

Agus was optimistic that market would absorb the bond, like previous bonds it issued before, due to its certain market share.

“Bank Jabar Banten has already issued bonds five times and we were never default, both in term time and payment interest,”Agus said.

He said that the issuance timing was very in a good time amidst lowering interest rates trend on saving deposit and well-positioned national liquidity.

PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (PEFINDO) ranked the bonds id A+ (stable outlook). The bonds were expected to be listed in the Indonesian Capital Market in July 6, 2009.

The bank’s financial performance grew significant in the first quarter of 2009. As of March 31, the banks posted after tax profit of 200.8 billion rupiah (about 19.6 million dollars), jumped sharply compared to the same period of last year which stood at 112.4 billion rupiah (about 10.97 million dollars). The significant result was mainly contributed by increasing credit interest revenue and income from commercial paper.

A new study finds that in sharp contrast to the overall declining rates of colorectal cancer in the United States, incidence rates among adults younger than age 50 years are increasing. The authors theorize that these increases may be related to rising rates of obesity and changes in dietary patterns, including increased consumption of fast food.

The study, which appears in the June issue of Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, says further studies are necessary to elucidate causes for this trend and to identify potential prevention and early detection strategies.

Overall incidence rates for colorectal cancer in the United States have been on the decline since the mid-1980s, with the drop accelerating in the most recent time period. Rates are now dropping 2.8 percent per year in men and 2.2 percent per year in women, largely due to an increase in screening, particularly colonoscopy, among individuals ages 50 years and older. Screening can reduce colorectal cancer incidence by detecting and removing polyps before they become cancerous.

But recent incidence trends among adults younger than 50 years, for whom routine screening is not recommended, have not been analyzed thoroughly. A previous study did find an increase in incidence from 1973 to 1999 for all races combined, but that study did not include 40 to 49 year-olds, who represent 73 percent of colorectal cancer patients under age 50.

In a new analysis, American Cancer Society researchers led by Rebecca L. Siegel, looked at trends in colorectal cancer incidence rates between 1992 and 2005 among young adults (ages 20 to 49) by sex, race/ethnicity, age, stage at diagnosis, and anatomic subsite.

The study found that among individuals ages 20 to 49, incidence rates of colorectal cancer increased 1.5 percent per year in men and 1.6 percent per year in women from 1992 to 2005. Among non-Hispanic Whites, rates increased for both men and women in each 10-year age grouping (20-29, 30-39, and 40-49 years) and for every stage of diagnosis. They found the largest annual percent increase in colorectal cancer incidence was in the youngest age group (20-29 years), in whom incidence rates rose by 5.2 percent per year inmen and 5.6 percent per year in women. They say the rises are due to an increase in left-sided tumors, particularly in the rectum.

The researchers address several possibilities for the rise, including rising rates of obesity, which is a major risk factor for colorectal cancer. Dietary factors may also come into play. The researchers note that between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s,fast-food consumption in the United States increased 5-fold among children and 3-fold among adults. A diet high in fast food is associated with both greater meat consumption and reduced milk consumption. Increased consumption of red and processed meat has been shown to increase risk of cancers of the distal colon and rectum, while milk and calcium consumption have shown a protective effect against the subsites in which the rise in incidence was most prominent. They say it is plausible that the emergence of unfavorable dietary patterns in children and young adults over the past three decades may have contributed to the increase in colorectal cancer among young adults observed in the study.

The authors conclude: “The disparate increase in left-sided colorectal cancer suggests that particular attention be given to studies to elucidate the behavioral and environmental risk factors responsible for this trend and potential prevention and early detection strategies.”

Sun Hua, an office worker who’s spent two years in Beijing, has been looking at second-hand apartments for more than two months, along with her fiance.

“Prices aren’t low. But I’m afraid that if we don’t decide to buy soon, prices will spike,” Sun said, as she described her struggle to make ends meet in her daily life while saving for a long-awaited home.

She plans to buy a one- or two-bedroom apartment on a mortgage that will run for more than 20 years. Borrowing some money from her parents, She couple will also use their hard-earned salaries to cover the minimum 20 percent down payment.

Sun is one of millions of potential home buyers in China who have been worrying about rising urban apartment prices since the Spring Festival in late January.

Chinese home prices began to pick up from one-year lows starting in February and home buying volumes reached a record high in recent months. Evidently, some buyers believed that prices had hit bottom at the start of the year. The situation has given Sun and other home buyers reason for concern.

Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that prices of new and existing homes in 70 large and mid-sized Chinese cities including Beijing, Shanghai and others fell 0.6 percent year on year in May, but prices still edged up 0.6 percent from April.

This was the third consecutive month that home prices had climbed month on month.

Second-hand home prices showed a similar trend, analysts said. Although no nationwide data were available, figures provided by Beijing-based 5i5j Real Estate Service Co. showed that second-hand home prices rose 1.53 percent month on month to 12,712 yuan (1,859 U.S. dollars) per square meter in Beijing in May.

SIGNS OF LIFE

Chen Sheng, vice president of the China Index Academy (CIA), a private-sector research institute that specializes in real estate, told Xinhua that the signs of life in the residential property market largely reflected government stimulus policies for the sector and consumers’ inflation expectations following a loan spike early this year.

China’s new yuan-denominated loans reached 664.5 billion yuan in May, bringing new loans in the first five months to 5.84 trillion yuan, far exceeding the full-year target of 5 trillion yuan. Loans to consumers topped 187.6 billion yuan last month, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central, said last Friday.

Of the total 187.6 billion yuan of consumer bank credit in May, 100.8 billion yuan was aimed at long-term housing loans, accounting for 53.73 percent of the total. The ratio was more than10 percentage points lower than in April, showing more people were cautious about buying homes on installment, analysts said.

China announced at the end of May that, for the first time in 13 years, the minimum capital requirements for developers to start a new commercial property or an affordable housing project had been lowered from 35 percent of the total project cost to 20 percent, a move to reduce developers’ investment threshold.

Policymakers in the world’s third-largest economy also reduced the minimum down payment ratio for home loans from 30 percent to 20 percent for first-time buyers starting at the end of last year, an apparent move to boost the market.

Qin Rui, a senior analyst with 5i5j, told Xinhua that some homebuyers were “following the crowd” when buying apartments in February, March and April this year as they did in the property buying spree of 2007 when the market was strong.

“However, some cautious home buyers chose to wait and see for awhile after observing what happened last month in Beijing,” Qin added.

TRANSACTIONS RISE, THEN WANE

Data from www.bjfdc.gov.cn, a real estate trading information platform run by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, revealed that first- and second-hand home trading volume fell 13.94 percent and 8.27 percent, respectively, in May from April, showing dampened enthusiasm and a wait-and-see attitude among potential buyers.

That reflects a change from the first quarter, when both transactions and prices rose.

Prices rose faster than volume in the first quarter, reflecting pent-up consumer demand and developers’ prices hikes to increase their profits, analysts said.

NBS data showed that total national first-hand home sales by area rose 8.2 percent to 113.09 million square meters in the first quarter, while developers’ sales revenue jumped 23.1 percent to 505.9 billion yuan.

Transactions remained brisk in April, but growth wasn’t as fast as in February and March in some cities. No national-level figure was available, but first-hand home sales volume rose 8.7 percent in Tianjin in April month on month, 43.93 percent in Wuhan month on month, and 12.4 percent month on month in Shenzhen, CIA figures revealed.

Transactions growth slowed further in May, as both owner-occupiers and investors took a wait-and-see attitude.

First-hand home sales by area edged up only 3 percent in May from April on average in eight urban areas — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu and Hangzhou — according to Centaline China Property Research.

The average first-hand home price of projects from the 10 biggest property firms including China Vanke, Poly Real Estate and others in these eight cities rose 6 percent in May from April to 10,006 yuan per sq m, according to Centaline.

STILL “TOO HIGH”

A report released by the PBOC last week on the basis of a survey in 50 cities nationwide showed that more than 60 percent of consumers considered current home prices “too high”.

“Although there are fresh signs of life in recent months in the market, with the overall economy having not fully recovered, it is difficult for high trading volume to continue into the second half of this year along with rising prices,” Qin said.

Qin added that only if investors and second-time buyers became the driving force of the property market, could it be said that the residential property market was truly on the way back up with real momentum.

But figures from 5i5j showed that the first-time home buyers were still the primary home purchase group, accounting for 37.21 percent of the total second-hand home buyers in Beijing in the eight months through May.

Investors accounted for 13.88 percent and those who were trading up accounted for 34.42 percent of the total. The remaining14.49 percent were those who bought second-hand homes for their elderly parents or so that their children could live closer to school.

If many first-time buyers rushed into the market within a few months, while investors and second-time buyers avoided the market as prices rose and potential investment gains shrank, any boom would be short-lived, Qin added.

The A/H1N1 flu has killed 337 people in 121 nations and regions and the number of the total infected exceeded 80,000, a top official of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday.

Most of the infected are young people, and schools and homes are the places where people are most likely to be infected, WHO Deputy Director -General Keiji Fukuda told a meeting on the A/H1N1 flu in Mexico’s southeastern resort town of Cancun.

He said the virus is more similar to H5N1 avian flu rather than the seasonal flu and the future of the disease is uncertain, but the existing anti-viral medication remains the most effective treatment.

The A/H1N1 flu death toll in the United States has reached 170, while the confirmed and probable cases risen to 33,902, according to the latest statistics of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday.

The CDC said that 43 more deaths have been reported in the past week, a 34 percent jump from the previous record of 127.

The new virus, H1N1, has a protein on its surface that is less efficient at binding with receptors in people’s respiratory tracts than bird flu and seasonal flu, according to a report in Friday’s edition of the journal Science by researchers at the Harvard University-Massachusetts Institute of Technology Division of Health Sciences and Technology.

The researchers also noted that H1N1 is more likely to cause intestinal distress and vomiting than seasonal flu, and should be closely watched in case it mutates to become easier to spread.

In Canada, the national total of confirmed cases stood at 7981, and the death toll rose Thursday to 31, with a newly reported death of a 60-year old woman from Quebec province. The Health Department is reminding people with severe symptoms such as trouble breathing and sore throats should go to see doctor.

The El Salvador Health Ministry announced Thursday the first death from the A/H1N1 flu of a nine-year-old boy in the country.

The National Health Institute of Colombia reported Thursday eight more cases of the A/H1N1 flu, which brings the number of confirmed cases to 101 in the country, including two deaths. Currently, 1,491 possible cases have been registered in Colombia.

Uruguay’s health authorities confirmed in a statement two more deaths of the A/H1N1 flu, bringing the total fatalities to three in the country, and the number of confirmed cases has reached 132.

The Brazilian Health Ministry announced on Thursday 44 new confirmed cases of the flu, putting the total at 737 in the country, where 1,049 suspected cases of the flu have been reported.

British Health Secretary Andy Burn warned Thursday that H1N1’s infection rate in Britain could reach 100,000 a day by the end of August following the trend that a “considerable rise” of the flu cases took place last week and the cases are doubling every week.

The British Health Protection Agency announced Thursday that a further 518 patients in England had been confirmed with A/H1N1, while the figure for Britain as a whole rose to 7,447.

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have been hit hard by the economic and financial crisis, but a recovery is expected to begin slowly in 2010 and gather momentum in 2011, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Wednesday.

A large majority of transnational corporations (TNCs) worldwide report that the global economic downturn and financial crisis have had negative impacts on their investment plans, said the agency in its World Investment Prospects Survey 2009-2011.

Of the 241 TNCs who responded to the annual survey, roughly 58 percent said they intend to reduce their foreign investments in 2009, with nearly one third anticipating a large decrease compared to 2008, the agency said.

However, the persistent trend toward internationalization by TNCs — measured by production, employment, investment and sales abroad — is expected to provide the catalyst for a full rebound in FDI expenditures by 2011. Half of TNC respondents forecast that their FDI expenditures in 2011 will be above their 2008 levels.

According to the survey, TNCs from the developing world, especially Asia, were the most optimistic regarding FDI in 2011, because they have suffered relatively less from the economic crisis.

In the developed world, sentiment was mixed, with companies in Japan and Europe less optimistic than those in the United States.

Responses to the survey also suggest that while TNCs are highly invested in areas that could be considered their traditional home regions, the trend is toward more globalization, with investments spread over many regions.

In terms of the geographical locations for potential FDI, responses to the survey show that the five most attractive destinations are China, the United States, India, Brazil, and the Russian Federation. While the members of the top five are the same as in last year’s survey, the United States and Brazil have improved their rankings slightly.

In terms of activity, TNCs in business-cycle sensitive industries that have been severely affected by the crisis, such as automotive, metals and chemicals, are among those expressing the most negative views for their FDI prospects.

On the other hand, some activities in sectors with more stable demand, such as agri-food and many services, or those that supply markets with quick growth prospects in the medium-term, such as pharmaceuticals, have been less affected.

The World Investment Prospects Survey 2009-2011 is the most recent of a series of surveys on FDI prospects. UNCTAD has carried out similar surveys since 1995.

The semi-final results of electing a new central committee and a revolutionary council by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas Fatah party’s congress members showed on Tuesday that the young generation of Fatah reformers achieved an overwhelming victory.

Winning Fatah reformists, who will be the future decision makers in the movement, ousted the old guard leaders, or the loyalists to late President Yasser Arafat, who led the group over the past 20 years and were behind several fatal mistakes that weakened the movement.

The state-run Palestinian satellite Television announced on Tuesday that 14 members of the 18-member central committee, the highest Fatah leading body, were from the young generation of reformists, while only four members represented the old guard trend within the movement.

Right after the semi-results were announced, Abbas said in a short press statement sent to the press that the final official results of electing the two highest Fatah bodies will be announcedlater by the central election committee which observed and inspected Fatah internal elections.

Four old-guard leaders who raced for the central committee membership, Intisar al-Wazir, Tayeb Abdel Rahim, Hakam Bal’awi and General Nasser Yousef, were defeated by the voters, in addition tothe non-expected loss of Ahmed Qurei, better known as Abu Alla, the top old-guard Fatah leader.

Qurei was the speaker of the former Fatah-dominated parliament and the prime minister of the second Palestinian government formed after the Oslo peace agreements.

Senior Fatah officials described the results of Fatah internal elections as “a coup d’etat of the young Fatah generation against the old-guard leaders who led the movement since it was established in January 1965.

According to Monir Salama, executive director of Fatah conference, who was in charge of organizing the elections’ process, Mohamed Ghuneim, a former central committee member, earned the highest votes.

Ghuneim earned 1,338 votes out of 2,332 congress members who joined the voting process. He returned two weeks ago to the West Bank for the first time since the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) was established 15 years ago to join the sixth long-awaited congress.

Palestinian observers believe that Ghuneim, number two figure after Abbas, might replace the 74-year-old Abbas, who was not elected as the chief of Fatah.

Ghuneim decided to stay in the West Bank and not to return to Tunis, where he lived for more than 20 years.

The second biggest winner in the central committee elections was Mahmoud al-Alloul, a Fatah lawmaker from the West Bank city of Nablus. He was nominated by Arafat as the governor of Nablus after the first withdrawal of Israeli army from the city in 1995.

It was also expected that jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, who serves a life sentence in an Israeli jail, would win in the central committee elections.

Barghouti, who was arrested in 2002, got the third highest votes. Israel accused him of establishing al-Aqsa Brigades, Fatah armed wing.

Barghouti, who denied the accusations, has the charisma of Yasser Arafat. Many of his supporters believe that if there will be presidential elections in the future, he will defeat Abbas or any other candidate from Hamas or other factions.

Three top security officials and Fatah leaders, Mohamed Dahlan, Jibril Rajoub and Tawfeek Tirawi, also won the central committee membership. Dahlan, the founder of the youth movement of Fatah in the Gaza Strip in 1982, is a strongman in Gaza Fatah and a bitter enemy of Hamas movement.

Hamas, which seized control of the Gaza Strip by force in June 2007, had repeatedly said the reason it carried out a large attackon Gaza security apparatuses was to get rid of Dahlan and his security forces which were behind the corruption in the Gaza Strip.

Among the new faces in the central committees, General Jibril Rajoub, former chief of the West Bank preventive security and now chairman of the Palestinian Football Association and Tawfeek Tirawi, former chief of intelligence in the West Bank.

The veteran peace negotiator Saeb Erekat, who was involved in the peace process long before the 1993 Madrid Mideast Peace Conference, was also one of the winners in the central committee. He is the chief of the negotiations department in Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Also among the new elected members of the central council is Nasser al-Qedwa, Arafat’s nephew, a former PNA foreign minister and the former representative of Palestine in the United Nations. He is well-known as a political mature leader.

Finally, it is still to say that Fatah lawmaker Azzam el-Ahmed, the chief negotiator in the inter-dialogue with Hamas movement in Cairo, and the chief of the liaison office with Israel Hussein al-Sheikh have also won the membership in the central committee.

As soon as the final results for the central committee and the revolutionary council are announced, the sixth general congress of Fatah that is held in the biblical West Bank city of Bethlehem will close. The seventh congress will be held according to Fatah law after five years.

CHINA’S consumer and producer prices continued to nosedive last month while exports also extended their tumble, pointing up the need for the nation to sustain a “relatively loose” economic policy that promotes consumer demand, analysts said.

The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, fell 1.8 percent in July from a year earlier, the sixth straight monthly decrease and the biggest drop since 1999, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. The CPI fell 1.7 percent in June and 1.4 percent in May.

The Producer Price Index, the measure of factory-gate inflation, decreased 8.2 percent last month, the most since record keeping began in 1992. It was the eighth straight monthly decline.

“Judging from the declining trend of the CPI and PPI, inflation is not an imminent threat and the government should stick to its moderately easy policy stance to keep economic growth steady,” said Hao Daming, an analyst at China Galaxy Securities Co. He predicted the CPI won’t turn positive until next year.

Meanwhile, China’s exports, the sector hardest hit by the global economic meltdown, dropped 23 percent year on year in July to US$105.4 billion. The figure compared with declines of 21.4 percent in June and 26.4 percent in May, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday. But it marked the first month this year that export value exceeded US$100 billion.

Imports were down 14.9 percent in July compared with a year ago, setting July’s trade surplus at US$10.7 billion, compared with US$8.2 billion in June and US$13.4 billion in May.

“China’s exports remain volatile, and it is hard to predict when the sector will emerge from the shadow of weak global demand. So at this time, the government can’t change its policy stance, which helps to boost domestic demand - the key to sustaining the economy,” said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co.

China’s gross domestic product rose 7.1 percent in the first half from a year earlier, with the rate accelerating 7.9 percent in the second quarter from growth of 6.1 percent in the first three months.

The People’s Bank of China said on Friday that it would not set quotas on new loans to rein in liquidity and that any “fine-tuning” of the monetary policy does not mean a shift in basic macroeconomic policy.

In fact, banks in China issued 355.9 billion yuan (US$52.1 billion) in yuan loans in July, down sharply from 1.53 trillion yuan in June, the central bank said yesterday.

China’s urban fixed-asset investment gained 32.9 percent from a year earlier in the first seven months, 5.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year but down 0.7 percentage points from the figure in the first half, the statistics bureau reported yesterday. It also said July retail sales rose 15.2 percent year on year to 993.7 billion yuan (US$145.5 billion), accelerating from the gain of 15 percent in June.

Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the data indicate that any big changes in economic policy are at least 10 month away.

“We expect a gradual policy shift. The current stance should remain broadly unchanged toward year end and turn neutral at the beginning of 2010 as the pace of new bank lending normalizes,” Wang said. “Policy tightening in the form of base interest rate increases or hikes in reserve requirements are unlikely until the middle of next year.”